In this NPR piece from a few years ago I was interviewed about the accuracy of the Farmer’s Almanac (spoiler: I’m skeptical). An interesting look at “folk” predictions can be found HERE:
Ben Radford, deputy editor of the science magazineSkeptical Inquirer, says mystery is actually a big part of why Tartisel and others might perceive the almanac as being more accurate than it actually is. People are attracted to the idea that a 200-year-old secret formula locked in a simple black box could outdo the weather geeks, says Radford, who has written books that examine urban legends and claims of the paranormal. So they tend to remember when the National Weather Service gets it wrong but forget when the almanac does.